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Rupp, Kevin ; Schill, Rudolf ; Süskind, Jonas ; Georg, Peter ; Klever, Maren ; Lösch, Andreas ; Grasedyck, Lars ; Wettig, Tilo ; Spang, Rainer

Differentiated uniformization: a new method for inferring Markov chains on combinatorial state spaces including stochastic epidemic models

Rupp, Kevin, Schill, Rudolf , Süskind, Jonas, Georg, Peter, Klever, Maren, Lösch, Andreas, Grasedyck, Lars, Wettig, Tilo und Spang, Rainer (2024) Differentiated uniformization: a new method for inferring Markov chains on combinatorial state spaces including stochastic epidemic models. Computational Statistics.

Veröffentlichungsdatum dieses Volltextes: 06 Feb 2024 12:35
Artikel
DOI zum Zitieren dieses Dokuments: 10.5283/epub.55492


Zusammenfassung

We consider continuous-time Markov chains that describe the stochastic evolution of a dynamical system by a transition-rate matrix Q which depends on a parameter . Computing the probability distribution over states at time t requires the matrix exponential , and inferring from data requires its derivative . Both are challenging to compute when the state space and hence the size of Q is huge. This ...

We consider continuous-time Markov chains that describe the stochastic evolution of a dynamical system by a transition-rate matrix Q which depends on a parameter . Computing the probability distribution over states at time t requires the matrix exponential , and inferring from data requires its derivative . Both are challenging to compute when the state space and hence the size of Q is huge. This can happen when the state space consists of all combinations of the values of several interacting discrete variables. Often it is even impossible to store Q. However, when Q can be written as a sum of tensor products, computing becomes feasible by the uniformization method, which does not require explicit storage of Q. Here we provide an analogous algorithm for computing , the differentiated uniformization method. We demonstrate our algorithm for the stochastic SIR model of epidemic spread, for which we show that Q can be written as a sum of tensor products. We estimate monthly infection and recovery rates during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Austria and quantify their uncertainty in a full Bayesian analysis. Implementation and data are available at https://github.com/spang-lab/TenSIR.



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Details

DokumentenartArtikel
Titel eines Journals oder einer ZeitschriftComputational Statistics
Verlag:Springer Nature
Datum26 Januar 2024
InstitutionenMedizin > Institut für Funktionelle Genomik > Lehrstuhl für Statistische Bioinformatik (Prof. Spang)
Informatik und Data Science > Fachbereich Bioinformatik > Lehrstuhl für Statistische Bioinformatik (Prof. Spang)

Physik > Institut für Theoretische Physik > Lehrstuhl Professor Braun > Arbeitsgruppe Tilo Wettig
Identifikationsnummer
WertTyp
10.1007/s00180-024-01454-9DOI
Stichwörter / KeywordsContinuous-time Markov chains · Bayesian inference · Uniformization · Matrix exponential · Tensors · Epidemic spread
Dewey-Dezimal-Klassifikation500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik > 530 Physik
600 Technik, Medizin, angewandte Wissenschaften > 610 Medizin
StatusVeröffentlicht
BegutachtetJa, diese Version wurde begutachtet
An der Universität Regensburg entstandenZum Teil
URN der UB Regensburgurn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-554927
Dokumenten-ID55492

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