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Rupp, Kevin ; Schill, Rudolf ; Süskind, Jonas ; Georg, Peter ; Klever, Maren ; Lösch, Andreas ; Grasedyck, Lars ; Wettig, Tilo ; Spang, Rainer

Differentiated uniformization: a new method for inferring Markov chains on combinatorial state spaces including stochastic epidemic models

Article

Rupp, Kevin, Schill, Rudolf , Süskind, Jonas, Georg, Peter, Klever, Maren, Lösch, Andreas, Grasedyck, Lars, Wettig, Tilo and Spang, Rainer (2024) Differentiated uniformization: a new method for inferring Markov chains on combinatorial state spaces including stochastic epidemic models. Computational Statistics.

DOI to cite this document: 10.5283/epub.55492


Abstract

We consider continuous-time Markov chains that describe the stochastic evolution of a dynamical system by a transition-rate matrix Q which depends on a parameter . Computing the probability distribution over states at time t requires the matrix exponential , and inferring from data requires its derivative . Both are challenging to compute when the state space and hence the size of Q is huge. This ...

We consider continuous-time Markov chains that describe the stochastic evolution of a dynamical system by a transition-rate matrix Q which depends on a parameter . Computing the probability distribution over states at time t requires the matrix exponential , and inferring from data requires its derivative . Both are challenging to compute when the state space and hence the size of Q is huge. This can happen when the state space consists of all combinations of the values of several interacting discrete variables. Often it is even impossible to store Q. However, when Q can be written as a sum of tensor products, computing becomes feasible by the uniformization method, which does not require explicit storage of Q. Here we provide an analogous algorithm for computing , the differentiated uniformization method. We demonstrate our algorithm for the stochastic SIR model of epidemic spread, for which we show that Q can be written as a sum of tensor products. We estimate monthly infection and recovery rates during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Austria and quantify their uncertainty in a full Bayesian analysis. Implementation and data are available at https://github.com/spang-lab/TenSIR.



Involved Institutions


Details

Item typeArticle
Journal or Publication TitleComputational Statistics
PublisherSpringer Nature
Open Access TypeDEAL (Springer)
Date26 January 2024
Date of publication06 Feb 2024 12:35
InstitutionsMedicine > Institut für Funktionelle Genomik > Lehrstuhl für Statistische Bioinformatik (Prof. Spang)
Informatics and Data Science > Department Computational Life Science > Lehrstuhl für Statistische Bioinformatik (Prof. Spang)

Physics > Institute of Theroretical Physics > Chair Professor Braun > Group Tilo Wettig
Identification Number
ValueType
10.1007/s00180-024-01454-9DOI
KeywordsContinuous-time Markov chains · Bayesian inference · Uniformization · Matrix exponential · Tensors · Epidemic spread
Dewey Decimal Classification500 Science > 530 Physics
600 Technology > 610 Medical sciences Medicine
StatusPublished
RefereedYes, this version has been refereed
Created at the University of RegensburgPartially
URN of the UB Regensburgurn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-554927
Item ID55492

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