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Differentiated uniformization: a new method for inferring Markov chains on combinatorial state spaces including stochastic epidemic models
Rupp, Kevin, Schill, Rudolf
, Süskind, Jonas, Georg, Peter, Klever, Maren, Lösch, Andreas, Grasedyck, Lars, Wettig, Tilo
und Spang, Rainer
(2024)
Differentiated uniformization: a new method for inferring Markov chains on combinatorial state spaces including stochastic epidemic models.
Computational Statistics.
Veröffentlichungsdatum dieses Volltextes: 06 Feb 2024 12:35
Artikel
DOI zum Zitieren dieses Dokuments: 10.5283/epub.55492
Zusammenfassung
We consider continuous-time Markov chains that describe the stochastic evolution of a dynamical system by a transition-rate matrix Q which depends on a parameter . Computing the probability distribution over states at time t requires the matrix exponential , and inferring from data requires its derivative . Both are challenging to compute when the state space and hence the size of Q is huge. This ...
We consider continuous-time Markov chains that describe the stochastic evolution of a dynamical system by a transition-rate matrix Q which depends on a parameter . Computing the probability distribution over states at time t requires the matrix exponential , and inferring from data requires its derivative . Both are challenging to compute when the state space and hence the size of Q is huge. This can happen when the state space consists of all combinations of the values of several interacting discrete variables. Often it is even impossible to store Q. However, when Q can be written as a sum of tensor products, computing becomes feasible by the uniformization method, which does not require explicit storage of Q. Here we provide an analogous algorithm for computing , the differentiated uniformization method. We demonstrate our algorithm for the stochastic SIR model of epidemic spread, for which we show that Q can be written as a sum of tensor products. We estimate monthly infection and recovery rates during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Austria and quantify their uncertainty in a full Bayesian analysis. Implementation and data are available at https://github.com/spang-lab/TenSIR.
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| Dokumentenart | Artikel | ||||
| Titel eines Journals oder einer Zeitschrift | Computational Statistics | ||||
| Verlag: | Springer Nature | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Datum | 26 Januar 2024 | ||||
| Institutionen | Medizin > Institut für Funktionelle Genomik > Lehrstuhl für Statistische Bioinformatik (Prof. Spang) Informatik und Data Science > Fachbereich Bioinformatik > Lehrstuhl für Statistische Bioinformatik (Prof. Spang) Physik > Institut für Theoretische Physik > Lehrstuhl Professor Braun > Arbeitsgruppe Tilo Wettig | ||||
| Identifikationsnummer |
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| Stichwörter / Keywords | Continuous-time Markov chains · Bayesian inference · Uniformization · Matrix exponential · Tensors · Epidemic spread | ||||
| Dewey-Dezimal-Klassifikation | 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik > 530 Physik 600 Technik, Medizin, angewandte Wissenschaften > 610 Medizin | ||||
| Status | Veröffentlicht | ||||
| Begutachtet | Ja, diese Version wurde begutachtet | ||||
| An der Universität Regensburg entstanden | Zum Teil | ||||
| URN der UB Regensburg | urn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-554927 | ||||
| Dokumenten-ID | 55492 |
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