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Differentiated uniformization: a new method for inferring Markov chains on combinatorial state spaces including stochastic epidemic models
Article
Rupp, Kevin, Schill, Rudolf
, Süskind, Jonas, Georg, Peter, Klever, Maren, Lösch, Andreas, Grasedyck, Lars, Wettig, Tilo
and Spang, Rainer
(2024)
Differentiated uniformization: a new method for inferring Markov chains on combinatorial state spaces including stochastic epidemic models.
Computational Statistics.
DOI to cite this document: 10.5283/epub.55492
Abstract
We consider continuous-time Markov chains that describe the stochastic evolution of a dynamical system by a transition-rate matrix Q which depends on a parameter . Computing the probability distribution over states at time t requires the matrix exponential , and inferring from data requires its derivative . Both are challenging to compute when the state space and hence the size of Q is huge. This ...
We consider continuous-time Markov chains that describe the stochastic evolution of a dynamical system by a transition-rate matrix Q which depends on a parameter . Computing the probability distribution over states at time t requires the matrix exponential , and inferring from data requires its derivative . Both are challenging to compute when the state space and hence the size of Q is huge. This can happen when the state space consists of all combinations of the values of several interacting discrete variables. Often it is even impossible to store Q. However, when Q can be written as a sum of tensor products, computing becomes feasible by the uniformization method, which does not require explicit storage of Q. Here we provide an analogous algorithm for computing , the differentiated uniformization method. We demonstrate our algorithm for the stochastic SIR model of epidemic spread, for which we show that Q can be written as a sum of tensor products. We estimate monthly infection and recovery rates during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Austria and quantify their uncertainty in a full Bayesian analysis. Implementation and data are available at https://github.com/spang-lab/TenSIR.
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| Item type | Article | ||||
| Journal or Publication Title | Computational Statistics | ||||
| Publisher | Springer Nature | ||||
| Open Access Type | DEAL (Springer) | ||||
| Date | 26 January 2024 | ||||
| Date of publication | 06 Feb 2024 12:35 | ||||
| Institutions | Medicine > Institut für Funktionelle Genomik > Lehrstuhl für Statistische Bioinformatik (Prof. Spang) Informatics and Data Science > Department Computational Life Science > Lehrstuhl für Statistische Bioinformatik (Prof. Spang) Physics > Institute of Theroretical Physics > Chair Professor Braun > Group Tilo Wettig | ||||
| Identification Number |
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| Keywords | Continuous-time Markov chains · Bayesian inference · Uniformization · Matrix exponential · Tensors · Epidemic spread | ||||
| Dewey Decimal Classification | 500 Science > 530 Physics 600 Technology > 610 Medical sciences Medicine | ||||
| Status | Published | ||||
| Refereed | Yes, this version has been refereed | ||||
| Created at the University of Regensburg | Partially | ||||
| URN of the UB Regensburg | urn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-554927 | ||||
| Item ID | 55492 |
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