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Piecewise Linear Transformation − Propagating Aleatoric Uncertainty in Neural Networks
Krapf, Thomas, Hagn, Michael, Miethaner, Paul, Schiller, Alexander, Luttner, Lucas and Heinrich, Bernd (2024) Piecewise Linear Transformation − Propagating Aleatoric Uncertainty in Neural Networks. In: 38th Annual AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 20.02.-27.02.2024, Vancouver, Kanada.Date of publication of this fulltext: 13 Mar 2024 12:08
Conference or workshop item
DOI to cite this document: 10.5283/epub.57891
Abstract
Real-world data typically exhibit aleatoric uncertainty which has to be considered during data-driven decision-making to assess the confidence of the decision provided by machine learning models. To propagate aleatoric uncertainty repre-sented by probability distributions (PDs) through neural net-works (NNs), both sampling-based and function approxima-tion-based methods have been proposed. ...
Real-world data typically exhibit aleatoric uncertainty which has to be considered during data-driven decision-making to assess the confidence of the decision provided by machine learning models. To propagate aleatoric uncertainty repre-sented by probability distributions (PDs) through neural net-works (NNs), both sampling-based and function approxima-tion-based methods have been proposed. However, these methods suffer from significant approximation errors and are not able to accurately represent predictive uncertainty in the NN output. In this paper, we present a novel method, Piece-wise Linear Transformation (PLT), for propagating PDs through NNs with piecewise linear activation functions (e.g., ReLU NNs). PLT does not require sampling or specific as-sumptions about the PDs. Instead, it harnesses the piecewise linear structure of such NNs to determine the propagated PD in the output space. In this way, PLT supports the accurate quantification of predictive uncertainty based on the criterion exactness of the propagated PD. We assess this exactness in theory by showing error bounds for our propagated PD. Fur-ther, our experimental evaluation validates that PLT outper-forms competing methods on publicly available real-world classification and regression datasets regarding exactness. Thus, the PDs propagated by PLT allow to assess the uncer-tainty of the provided decisions, offering valuable support.
Involved Institutions
Details
| Item type | Conference or workshop item (Paper) | ||||
| Page Range: | pp. 20456-20464 | ||||
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| Date | 24 March 2024 | ||||
| Institutions | Business, Economics and Information Systems > Institut für Wirtschaftsinformatik > Lehrstuhl für Wirtschaftsinformatik II (Prof. Dr. Bernd Heinrich) Informatics and Data Science > Department Information Systems > Lehrstuhl für Wirtschaftsinformatik II (Prof. Dr. Bernd Heinrich) | ||||
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| Keywords | Probabilistic Inference, Decision/Utility Theory, Other Foundations of Reasoning under Uncertainty, Probabilistic Programming, Uncertainty Representations | ||||
| Dewey Decimal Classification | 000 Computer science, information & general works > 004 Computer science | ||||
| Status | Published | ||||
| Refereed | Yes, this version has been refereed | ||||
| Created at the University of Regensburg | Yes | ||||
| URN of the UB Regensburg | urn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-578918 | ||||
| Item ID | 57891 |
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