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Krapf, Thomas ; Hagn, Michael ; Miethaner, Paul ; Schiller, Alexander ; Luttner, Lucas ; Heinrich, Bernd

Piecewise Linear Transformation − Propagating Aleatoric Uncertainty in Neural Networks

Krapf, Thomas, Hagn, Michael, Miethaner, Paul, Schiller, Alexander, Luttner, Lucas und Heinrich, Bernd (2024) Piecewise Linear Transformation − Propagating Aleatoric Uncertainty in Neural Networks. In: 38th Annual AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 20.02.-27.02.2024, Vancouver, Kanada.

Veröffentlichungsdatum dieses Volltextes: 13 Mrz 2024 12:08
Konferenz- oder Workshop-Beitrag
DOI zum Zitieren dieses Dokuments: 10.5283/epub.57891


Zusammenfassung

Real-world data typically exhibit aleatoric uncertainty which has to be considered during data-driven decision-making to assess the confidence of the decision provided by machine learning models. To propagate aleatoric uncertainty repre-sented by probability distributions (PDs) through neural net-works (NNs), both sampling-based and function approxima-tion-based methods have been proposed. ...

Real-world data typically exhibit aleatoric uncertainty which has to be considered during data-driven decision-making to assess the confidence of the decision provided by machine learning models. To propagate aleatoric uncertainty repre-sented by probability distributions (PDs) through neural net-works (NNs), both sampling-based and function approxima-tion-based methods have been proposed. However, these methods suffer from significant approximation errors and are not able to accurately represent predictive uncertainty in the NN output. In this paper, we present a novel method, Piece-wise Linear Transformation (PLT), for propagating PDs through NNs with piecewise linear activation functions (e.g., ReLU NNs). PLT does not require sampling or specific as-sumptions about the PDs. Instead, it harnesses the piecewise linear structure of such NNs to determine the propagated PD in the output space. In this way, PLT supports the accurate quantification of predictive uncertainty based on the criterion exactness of the propagated PD. We assess this exactness in theory by showing error bounds for our propagated PD. Fur-ther, our experimental evaluation validates that PLT outper-forms competing methods on publicly available real-world classification and regression datasets regarding exactness. Thus, the PDs propagated by PLT allow to assess the uncer-tainty of the provided decisions, offering valuable support.


Beteiligte Einrichtungen


Details

DokumentenartKonferenz- oder Workshop-Beitrag (Paper)
Seitenbereich:S. 20456-20464
Datum24 März 2024
InstitutionenWirtschaftswissenschaften > Institut für Wirtschaftsinformatik > Lehrstuhl für Wirtschaftsinformatik II (Prof. Dr. Bernd Heinrich)
Informatik und Data Science > Fachbereich Wirtschaftsinformatik > Lehrstuhl für Wirtschaftsinformatik II (Prof. Dr. Bernd Heinrich)
Verwandte URLs
URLURL Typ
https://ojs.aaai.org/index.php/AAAI/article/view/30029Kongress
Stichwörter / KeywordsProbabilistic Inference, Decision/Utility Theory, Other Foundations of Reasoning under Uncertainty, Probabilistic Programming, Uncertainty Representations
Dewey-Dezimal-Klassifikation000 Informatik, Informationswissenschaft, allgemeine Werke > 004 Informatik
StatusVeröffentlicht
BegutachtetJa, diese Version wurde begutachtet
An der Universität Regensburg entstandenJa
URN der UB Regensburgurn:nbn:de:bvb:355-epub-578918
Dokumenten-ID57891

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